The success of the North American fast food industry is tied to the beef business as tightly as the success of the NBA was tied to Michael Jordan or the NHL to Wayne Gretzky. When the big boys left, basketball and hockey were in deep financial cow flop. If beef hits the wall, the same thing happens to the fast food biz.

Here’s the proof: Q.S.R. restaurant stocks fell immediately after news reports of a domestic cow possibly being infected with mad cow disease. The only U.S. case of B.S.E., reported during the Christmas holiday of 2003, sent the market into a dive with restaurant stocks taking the bulk of the sell-off with beef processors close behind.

The day after the preliminary report, Friday, November 19, Wendy’s International fell 2%, or 73 cents, to close at $35.10. McDonalds Corp was down 2.17%, or 65 cents, closing at $29.30 on almost double its daily average shares traded. Yum! Brands; parent company of Taco Bell, KFC, A&W, Long John Silver’s and Pizza Hit, was off 42 cents, almost a full percentage point, closing at $43.75. Cattle futures, of course, took a major league hit.

It was only a fortunate coincidence that Wendy’s web site and stores were all featuring Homestyle Chicken Strips when the detritus of the most recent mad cow situation hit those quickly rotating blades.

Over the following weekend the USDA did its best to ease market panic, stating that the animal was preliminarily found to have BSE and that the test was inconclusive.

Brad Crutchfield, Vice President of Bio-Rad, the company that makes the rapid screen test used by the USDA, immediately fanned the flickering flame when he told CNN that a positive finding “is far more likely after two inconclusive tests.”

"Greater than 95 percent of all doubly reactive tests are ultimately confirmed," Crutchfield said.

Fortunately my friend Brad was dead wrong.

The Livestock Marketing Association immediately protested the USDA announcement “There is no consumer benefit from announcing inconclusive BSE test results," LMA President Randy Patterson said, "Because the suspect cow did not enter the food or feed chain.” Patterson also felt it needlessly disrupted the market, causing financial injury to his organization’s membership.

Randy will get a fast food “right on” from the CFO’s at Wendy’s, McDonald’s and YUM! Brands and a fist full of coupons for free #3’s at Mickey D’s or Homestyle Chicken Strips from Wendy’s. Maybe even a Meat Lover’s ® pizza from Pizza Hut.

Confirmatory tests denying the initial results were done at the National Veterinary Services Laboratory in Ames, Iowa. The Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) announced the good news just before Thanksgiving. Folks at the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association immediately tossed out the traditional holiday bird in favor of a standing rib roast.

Scientists and industry officials still say the enhanced surveillance will find additional cases, but say this poses no food safety issue. The Japanese, after all, test every animal and have found 14 cases to date.

In a stunning display of his complete misunderstanding of the public’s attitude about the perceived safety of their food supply, Dr. William Hueston, a renowned University of Minnesota veterinary epidemiologist and a member of a BSE advisory panel convened by Ann Veneman after the BSE incident last Christmas said, "To me, one, two, three, five other cases is not a crisis."

Five up side the head to Hueston and let’s agree with Randy Patterson. Disrupting markets without a damn good reason is a bad thing. Ignoring public opinion is worse. Here is the Catch 22 that falls dead center between the USDA and the LMA. If a suspect animal is found to be free of mad cow disease, the USDA cried wolf too soon. Keep it up and they’ll have the same reputation as a weatherman who keeps calling for snow and none comes. Soon, people stop listening, and all hell breaks loose when the oft-predicted storm finally arrives.

If the USDA listens to the LMA membership and waits a few weeks until they get an absolutely confirmed positive, the public will crucify them. There will be Senate inquiries well-stocked with outraged Senators posturing on camera with self-righteous indignation for the folks back home, USDA heads will roll, elected officials will be recalled and beef will be headed the way of mutton in North America.

Not a good outcome either way.

Editor’s note: Can you offer a soluton to this dilemma—a middle way to protect both the consumer and the beef industry if there is another suspected case of Mad Cow disease? Comment in Hoblog.

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Chuck Jolley is a marketing executive who's been associated with the food industry for over 25 years. He's helped develop advertising and public relations programs for Cryovac, the world's largest flexible packaging company, and published MEAT&POULTRY, the leading trade magazine in the meat and poultry industry. He's worked with major companies in the meat, poultry, seafood, baking, dairy and fresh produce industries.Contact: crjolley@msn.com